Doomed to Fail? Why Success was almost not an Option in the 2020 Protests in Belarus

Author: sergei Mudrov

In: Journal of Contemporary Central and Eastern Europe, 2021

Mudrov, an academic working inside Belarus, argues that despite the initial impetus of the movement against Lukashenko from August 2020, there were four main reasons why it failed. The degree of support for Lukashenko was underestimated, some social classes such as industrial and agricultural workers were not well represented in the protests, government institutions consolidated behind the government and the police and military stayed loyal to the regime. Other factors were that protest symbols alienated many people, and many were deterred by the harshness of the repression. Mudrov also argues that the protests exacerbated divisions in Belarusian society, and increased hatred and distrust.  But he concludes that there is also, especially amongst the young, increasing desire for change.